Peavy vs. Webb

Jake Peavy is better than Brandon Webb

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I feel like we need to have a full out debate on this issue. I think there is a clear difference between the two pitchers and in my opinion; I think Peavy is a much better pitcher, though I can see the other side. At this point, I want to present my argument on why Peavy is better than Webb is.

Clearly, over their respective careers, Peavy has been a much more dominant pitcher in any given season, save 2006, the year he started playing in the World Baseball Classic. Since his rookie season, not once has Webb been able to keep his ERA under 3.00 or his lgERA under 4.40. Peavy has accomplished both with significant margins twice under 2.60 ERA and 3.90 lgERA, again save for 2006. Both have held ERA+s of over 130 three times, but Peavy tops Webb in strikeouts by 123 percent while issuing walks at a five percent lower rate in their careers.

Also, if you take the years in which they won their Cy Young awards, respectively, you will notice, Peavy was much more dominant, and if it were not for the WBC, Peavy may have given Webb a very significant run for his money in 2006.

In 2007, Peavy was able to hold his ERA under 2.00 until late June and not once did his ERA spike to over 2.50 until the last game of the season. Webb, meanwhile was over 2.00 after his second game pitched and never returned to below 2.00. In addition, beginning in late August and carrying into September, Webb’s ERA hovered around 3.00.

If you believe ERA is an overrated stat, consider this: Peavy dominated in both 2006 and 2007 when comparing sabermetric stats. (2006 was an aberration, yet when paired with 2007, his stats are very comparable to Webb’s) Peavy in 2006-2007 had 21 games in which his WPA (which calculates win probability of player, a negative number means the player hurt the team’s chances of winning) was a negative percentage, with nine of those being less than -10 percent. Webb on the other hand, had 26, with six being less than 10 percent. When you consider that 2006 and 2007’s NL West was decided by a total of 1.5 games, (tied one year, 1.5 games back of AZ for SD last season) it is a significant difference and the stat can show how many games the player cost a team.

Furthermore, in 2007, Peavy had a total average game score (Bill James stat for evaluating success of a pitcher’s start) of 62, a K/BB of 3.53 and an OPS of .584, while Webb had 58, 2.69 and .630.

Next I’d compare the repitoire of both pitchers and this is where I’d like input from Arizona fans. I don’t have the best grasp of Webb outside of his sinker, but from what I understand, he doesn’t throw other pitches often, as he has no need for them. However, Peavy can depend on four pitches, yet throws his fastball in line with league averages (61 percent of the time) while he throws his strikeout pitch, the slider 33 percent of the time. His slider and change-up are on average about ten mph slower than his fastball, and this is what makes him so deadly. The change-up he throws breaks in the opposite direction of his slider with very late deception. At the same time, his slider varies from a sharp cut across horizontally and a more slurve action slider. With so many directions and variations on a pitch that may come out looking identical, it is very hard to adjust to Peavy. Throw that in with his 95-97 mph fastball, I feel like it could top anything Webb has to offer.